HGGS Gastdoktorand Dr. Junlai Zhang
Dr. Junlai Zhang’s research focuses on development economics and health economics, with an emphasis on well-being measurement, population aging, and health expenditure forecasting. He co-developed indicators such as Healthy Lifetime Income to support cross-country comparisons and long-term trend analysis. In the field of aging, he built system dynamics models to forecast China’s demographic and health trends through 2060. He received the Ernst Mach Grant from the Austrian Ministry of Education and the Barry Richmond Scholarship Award from the System Dynamics Society in 2023. His work has been published in leading journals including Social Science & Medicine and Social Indicators Research, and has been presented at international conferences in Chicago and Bergen. In early 2025, he was invited as a visiting scholar at Harvard Medical School.
Publications
Zhang, J., Prettner, K., Chen, S., & Bloom, D. E. (2023). Beyond GDP: Using Healthy Lifetime Income to Trace Well-being Over Time With Estimates for 193 Countries. Social Science & Medicine, 115674.
Luo, S., Zhang, J., & Heffernan, M. (2024). Forecast of total health expenditure on China’s ageing population: a system dynamics model. BMC Health Services Research, 24(1), 1655.
Zhang, J., Chen, S., & Prettner, K., (2025). Measuring High-Quality Development and Progress toward “Common Prosperity” in China. Social Indicators Research.
CONFERENCES PRESENTATIONS
Zhang, J., & Heffernan, M. (2023, July). Using System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast China’s Population Until 2060: Visualizing Aging and Shrinking Population Trends. Presented at the 41st International System Dynamics Conference, Chicago, USA.
Zhang, J., & Heffernan, M. (2024, August). Using System Dynamics to Predict Health Trends in China: A Close Look at Healthy Life Expectancy. Presented at the 42nd International System Dynamics Conference, Bergen, Norway.
GRANT - Ernst Mach Grant – Eurasia-Pacific Uninet, funded by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science, and Research (BMBWF), September, 2022.
AWARD- Barry Richmond Scholarship Award, Isee systems and System Dynamics Society, 41st International System Dynamics Conference, Chicago, USA (July 2023). Awarded for the paper “Using System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast China’s Population until 2060 to Visualize the Aging and Shrinking Population Trends.”